UFC on FOX 27 Odds: Souza vs. Brunson 2 Prediction

The following UFC event — UFC on Fox 27 — goes down this Saturday (Jan. 27th) and features a main-event tilt between Ronaldo”Jacare” Souza and Derek Brunson. This is the second time both of these middleweights will face off, with Souza winning via knockout in their first go around in 2012. However, time is a funny thing, and six years later, it is Brunson riding the wave of momentum while Souza regroups after a catastrophic loss that cost him a shot at the UFC middleweight title.
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While this isn’t the tastiest primary course the UFC has served, it is a captivating contrast in styles, and each MMA event, whatever the hype, produces potential betting opportunities. Where is the smart money going for Souza vs Brunson 2?
Stay tuned for a broader look at the card in Best Bets for UFC on Fox 27 that Thursday.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-160) vs. Derek Brunson (+135)
Jacare Souza combating in Strikeforce.
Jacare Souza. Photo by LowLight (YouTube) [CC License].
This is your traditional battle of fashions. Ronaldo Souza (24-5, 17 submissions) is among the best jiu-jitsu professionals to step foot into a UFC Octagon while Derek Brunson (18-5, 10 KOs) loves to put people to sleep with his powerful fists.
The first time both of these combatants met was back in 2012 under the old Strikeforce banner, and it was really Souza who was able to place Brunson to sleep with a fast hook, just one of three career knockouts for the Brazilian.
Via GIPHY
Six years after, Brunson, a former Division II All-American wrestler (and cheerleader!) , has an opportunity for revenge.
His opponent is one of the most feared grapplers around the planet, and it has stopped 58-percent of his fights via entry. As he showed in the first matchup, he is not too shabby in casting leather either. He lands a decent 2.28 significant strikes every minute and has a striking accuracy of 44.1-percent.
Souza suffered a devastating loss to Robert Whittaker through head kick at his last fight (April 2017), but he’s also won 10 of his final 12 and hasn’t dropped back-to-back fights in his career. A win on Saturday would place Souza’s title back into middleweight title film, and time is of the essence for the 38-year-old.
At 34, Derek Brunson’s own career clock is now getting late. He rebounded from back-to-back losses to Whittaker and Anderson Silva with KO wins over Dan Kelly (June 2017) and Lyoto Machida (October 2017), increasing up the middleweight positions in the procedure. Knocking guys out is not anything new for its hard-hitting middleweight, who averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 32.1-percent. He has won 61-percent of his struggles via KO, and it has produced knockouts in each of his past six victories. Interestingly, he has never been filed in his professional career.
The contrasting styles make this a very interesting battle for MMA purists. Normally, it’s smart to lean towards the high-level grappler within the energy puncher, but Souza’s age coupled with his very last performance suggest a potential Brunson upset. Search for the American to utilize his speed, power, and five-inch reach advantage (77??? vs 72???) to try to finish things early, while utilizing his elite wrestling to keep the fight standing.
Right now, Brunson is recorded at +135 on MyBookie.ag. It is a fantastic value bet worth getting now.